October 2024 Update:

It’s that time of year again when powder fiends begin to think about global weather systems and wonder if we’ll be boot deep, waist deep or fully submerged in Japan for the coming winter.

In regards to what we can expect this winter, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) stated on Oct 10th 2024:

ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in September. Overall conditions in the atmosphere and ocean, however, indicate the tropical Pacific is heading towards La Niña conditions.

The characteristics of La Niña conditions will become clearer in the coming winter, but the conditions will not last long. Thus, the likelihood of meeting the definition of a La Niña event and that of ENSO-neutral continuing are even (50%).

Before we dig into what this means, let’s have a look at what’s been happening in Hokkaido for the past decade or so:

There are definitely some interesting trends in the table above (even though it’s a small data sample):

We can see that Niseko seems to favour higher snowfalls in neutral & La Niña patterns in general. Furano is much less predictable – having both it’s highest and lowest snow totals during El Niño, and often scoring above average snow in almost any pattern.

The current long range temperature forecast is showing it’s likely we’ll see near-normal temperatures for Dec-Feb in northern Japan, and lower than average further south.

We are also seeing a 40% chance of above average snow totals over winter for much of the west coast, central Tohoku and central Hokkaido.

We’re waiting on updated data from the JMA in early December before we say any more about this, but who doesn’t love statistics that work in our favour!

No matter what happens this year, La Niña weather patterns generally cause a lot of excitement for powder lovers so here’s a simple overview of why “little sister” is a notable cooling event.

As outlined by Ronan Maguire, Whiteroom Lead Avalanche Forecaster:

A La Niña pattern results in cooler-than-average surface temperatures across the equatorial central Pacific Ocean and a rising of the ocean temperatures adjacent to Southeast Asia, which is generating moist air.

All of this moist air tends to create blocking high-pressure systems on the East coast of the Indochina peninsula – Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, etc. These highs then push the cold prevailing westerly winds further North which means we have warm moist air meeting a cold air flow from Siberia which then sees those moisture-rich clouds dump a lot of snow across Hokkaido and the Tohoku region.

Of course any long-range forecast should be taken with a grain of salt, but things are looking positive at this stage. In either case, an average winter in Japan is nothing short of amazing, which is why we all keep going back!

For all of you fellow weather nerds out there, the following chart may also pique your interest; all recorded historical El Niño and La Niña Events, defined by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) deviation, in Japan since 1950.

You’ll notice in the above chart that we are currently sitting fairly close to the mean sea surface temperature; if that line continues downward it’s more likely we’ll be entering the La Niña trend.

Now that we’ve all decided weather is complicated why not jump on a plane and come join us in Japan this winter! While many of our peak season dates are booked solid we still have spots available across the winter season for guided tours, private guided days, our new resort powder discovery, and private lessons in both our Furano and Niseko base areas!